Empire State Mfg Survey

11-15-2013 4-13-34 PMThe opening price on the E-mini S&P today was (1791.25). At 11:50 a.m. US/Eastern time, the market double bottomed at (1788). At 4:05 p.m. US/Eastern time the high price of the day (1796) was hit. Each month, the New York Fed conducts a monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Representatives from a variety of industries participate. About 175 manufacturing executives respond to the questionnaire, which is sent out on the first of each month. The questionnaire covers an assortment of indicators from the previous month. Respondents are also asked for their views about the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. In the month of November, the conditions have turned slightly negative in the New York manufacturing region. The General Business Conditions Index dropped to minus 2.21 from 1.52 in October. New orders are at minus 5.53, unfilled orders are at minus 17.11, shipments are at minus 0.53, and employees are at zero this month. These lacking numbers are pointing to further declines. This is the first time since May that the Empire State index is in the minus column, which indicates a flattening in growth, not a reversal.

Chain Store Sales

11-7-2013 5-40-53 PMToday, the opening price on the E-mini S&P was (1770.75). The day’s high price (1771.25) was hit at 9:50 a.m. US/Eastern time. The day’s low was (1742.25) at 3:55 p.m. US/Eastern time. Chain-store sales are mostly positive, but not by much. Compared to September, slightly more chains are reporting higher year-on-year sales rates in October, which appears to have gotten a lift from cold weather that boosted demand for seasonal goods. But the government shutdown was a negative, holding down spending in the first half of the month. The weekly chain-store reports have been mixed with slight monthly strength to weakness. Vehicle sales posted by manufacturers on last week’s calendar is another indication that October retail sales are flat. The October retail sales report was delayed slightly by last month’s government shutdown and will be posted on November 20.

Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index

11-6-2013 4-45-49 PMToday, the opening price on the E-mini S&P market was (1765.50). At 10:00 a.m. US/Eastern, the day’s high was (1770). The market’s low price point, (1760) was hit today at 11:10 a.m. US/Eastern. For the first time since April, the Gallup’s Job Creation Index has registered below +21, at +19. The index for October 2013 is similar to the October 2012 average, but is still higher than the low levels seen from the second half of 2008 through 2011. Gallup began tracking job creation in 2008. The index score from last month is tied for the most positive for any October since Gallup began tracking job creation. Federal worker reports of net hiring fell six points to minus 10 in the last month, most likely a result of the government shutdown. Net hiring reports among local government workers were just as bad, loosing six points for a score of +9 in October. State government workers net hiring score also dipped from +17 to +14. Overall, net hiring fell slightly in October mostly due to less hiring at all levels of government. Hiring still remains stronger than in recent years, with only federal workers reporting more layoffs than hiring.

Significant News Events

Oct10Chart1Today’s E-mini S&P opening price was (1666.75). The lowest price occurred within the first five minutes of opening at (1666.50). For the most part, price steadily rose throughout the day. The high was hit at around 3:15 US Eastern of (1687.75). The market prices can have massive price fluctuations when there are significant news events such as big-headline world events, scheduled economic reports, and prominent political figures. The Bloomberg economic calendar is a recommended resource for staying on top of scheduled events. A red star next to an event means these cause volatile activity.┬áIt is advised to stay out of the markets until volatile activity subsides.

Realistic Trading for the Rest of Us

The video above starts playing in a few seconds (there’s a black screen at first).

DTI hosts a lot of the world’s top trading experts. This video above is one of their Summit Presentations, in which three experts spoke. John Paul was the second in line, and in our opinion, was the best. The use of the slideshow animations really drives home his points about trading price. About five minutes in, he goes over the ABC Pattern – how to split the E-Mini into three distinct sessions based on time. You can accurately predict where price will be headed in future sessions after studying the prior sessions. It also provides a way to tell if the E-Mini is behaving normally (aka it’s tradeable). Another tool in the price action trader’s arsenal is the ATR (Average True Range). With a four bar period set and knowing that an ATR between 2 and 4 is considered good, you can minimize risk (placing stops and profit targets realistically). Another interesting point John makes is where traders place stops. Most of the time, these are at even numbers. Since trading is always first-come, first served, having unusual stops may increase fill chance. Indicators are also discussed in the video. More importantly, John stresses the lagging effect and calculations on when moves are over (you’re always a step behind). Trading price is about being aware – ignore other influences and focusing on one chart, looking for setups as they occur. Trading price may be a bit too intense for some, but really, it’s entirely objective. For long term trading, John also mentioned the “January Effect”, whereby a bullish-ending January also indicators a bullish 2012 close for the E-Mini. If price starts to fall, it may be a great buying opportunity if held until the end of the year.