Treasury Budget Report

11-13-2013 4-40-34 PMThe E-mini S&P opened today at (1756.50). The day’s low price was hit within the first five minutes of opening at (1755.25). At 4:40 p.m. US/Eastern time the day’s high was reached at (1781.50). Each month, the U.S. Treasury releases a monthly report of the surplus or deficit of the federal government. Investors pay attention to changes in the budget balance of the annual fiscal year, as an indicator of budgetary trends. The deficit reduction continues into the first month of the government’s new fiscal year, with a $91.6 billion vs a deficit of $120.0 billion in October last year. That is a a 24 percent improvement. About $8 billion of the improvement is tied to calendar timing, meaning the actual year-on-year improvement is 17 percent. A gain in corporate income taxes are led by an 8 percent increase in receipts. The temporary government shutdown is perhaps to blame for outlays being down five percent. The year-on-year spending on defence is down 8 percent, with net interest expense down 18 percent.

International Council of Shopping Centers

11-12-2013 4-56-47 PMToday the E-mini S&P opened at (1766.50). At 10 a.m. US/Eastern time The da’ys high was reached at (1770). The day’s low was reached about five minutes after opening at 9:35 a.m. US/Eastern time of (1764). The International Council of Shopping Centers publishes a weekly report of comparable store sales at major retail chains. This report accounts for about 10 percent of total retail sales. The report this week states there was a 1.2 percent jump in week-to-week same-store sales for a 2.3 percent year-on-year pace which is up 4 tenths in the week. This was most likely the result of colder weather and lower gas prices in the November 9 week.

Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index

11-6-2013 4-45-49 PMToday, the opening price on the E-mini S&P market was (1765.50). At 10:00 a.m. US/Eastern, the day’s high was (1770). The market’s low price point, (1760) was hit today at 11:10 a.m. US/Eastern. For the first time since April, the Gallup’s Job Creation Index has registered below +21, at +19. The index for October 2013 is similar to the October 2012 average, but is still higher than the low levels seen from the second half of 2008 through 2011. Gallup began tracking job creation in 2008. The index score from last month is tied for the most positive for any October since Gallup began tracking job creation. Federal worker reports of net hiring fell six points to minus 10 in the last month, most likely a result of the government shutdown. Net hiring reports among local government workers were just as bad, loosing six points for a score of +9 in October. State government workers net hiring score also dipped from +17 to +14. Overall, net hiring fell slightly in October mostly due to less hiring at all levels of government. Hiring still remains stronger than in recent years, with only federal workers reporting more layoffs than hiring.

Important Speeches on the Econony

11-1-2013 5-07-03 PMThe opening price on the E-mini S&P today was (1755). At 10:10 a.m. US/Eastern, the day’s high was (1761.25). The markets low price point, (1747) was hit today at 12:20 p.m. US/Eastern. There were three important speakers today reported on the Bloomberg Economic Calendar. James Bullard, the St Louis Federal Reserve Bank President gave a speech on the economy and monetary policy in St Louis. Narayana Kocherlakota, the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President gave opening remarks at healt conference in St. Paul. Jeffrey Lacker, the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President gave a speech on interdependence in central banking in Philadelphia. There was no indication that the speakers had any significant impact on the market.

Crude Oil Prices

10-21-2013 chart2The opening price on the E-mini S&P today was (1739.25). The lowest price of the day was (1734.75) at 2:25 p.m. Eastern time. The day’s high was hit at 10:05 a.m. Eastern time of (1742.50). In the week of October 11 oil inventories rose by 4.0 million barrels to 374.5 million. Oil imports remain steady at an 8.0 million barrel per day rate in the week. With the seasonal slow down, refineries are operating at 86.2 percent capacity vs. the low 90 percent rates during the summer. Gasoline and distillate inventories are down 2.6 million and 1.8 million barrels in the week respectively. With oil prices at the $100 level per barrel, it is now moving slightly slower following today’s report.