Financial Sector Job-Cuts

12-5-2013 4-48-12 PMThe E-mini S&P opening price today was (1788). Today, the low price (1782) was hit at 3:05 p.m. US/Eastern time. The high price (1792) was reached at 10:15 p.m. Eastern time. The Challenger Job-Cut Report is a monthly report that counts and categorizes announcements of corporate layoffs based on mass layoff data from state departments of labor. This data must be analyzed with caution because it doesn’t distinguish between scheduled layoffs for the short-term or the long term, or whether job cuts are handled through attrition or actual layoffs. The report also does not include jobs eliminated in small batches over a longer time period. For the report in November this year, layoff announcements continue to run at 2-year highs, at 45,314. For the past four months, averages have been about 45,500. This is well above the prior average over a four month period, at 38,000. Most of these announcements are coming from the financial sector due to declinging foreclosures reducing staffing needs. The results of today’s report are no good indication for tomorrow’s big employment report.

International Council of Shopping Centers

11-26-2013 4-38-42 PMThe E-mini S&P opening price today was (1801.75). Today, the price (1798.75) was hit at 10:10 a.m. US/Eastern time. The high price (1807) was reached at 3:30 p.m. Eastern time. Each week, the International Council of Shopping Centers publishes a report of the weekly measure of comparable store sales at major retail chains. Investors want to know about this report because accounts for roughly 10 percent of total retail sales. There is not much explanation as to why this weeks growth surged 2.6 percent while the year-on-year rate fell a sizable 7 tenths to only plus 2.1 percent. The trend in this report is that the Black Friday sales are going to be flat, which will not make or break November.

Eric Rosengren on Basill III

11-18-2013 4-41-48 PMThe opening price on the E-mini S&P today was (1798). The day’s high price was (1798.75) at 11:15 a.m. US/Eastern time. At 3:35 p.m. US/Eastern time, the low price of the day was (1784.75). Eric Rosengren, president of the Boston Federal Reserve Bank, came out in support for the narrower definition of capital under the global Basel III framework. In July, the Fed adopted the global Basel III rules in a commitment to draft tougher capital requirements for the largest banks. Basel III will force most banks to hold about three times as much top-quality capital as is required under existing rules, to reduce their risk and protect taxpayers from costly bailouts. The Federal Reserve Board will be required to undergo annual stress tests using three economic and financial market scenarios. Only a summary of the three official Fed scenarios would be made public. The rules would apply not only to banks but, also to all institutions with more than US$50 billion in assets. The Fed will begin implementing the Basel III framework in early 2014 and is expected to be fully implemented by 2019.

Empire State Mfg Survey

11-15-2013 4-13-34 PMThe opening price on the E-mini S&P today was (1791.25). At 11:50 a.m. US/Eastern time, the market double bottomed at (1788). At 4:05 p.m. US/Eastern time the high price of the day (1796) was hit. Each month, the New York Fed conducts a monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Representatives from a variety of industries participate. About 175 manufacturing executives respond to the questionnaire, which is sent out on the first of each month. The questionnaire covers an assortment of indicators from the previous month. Respondents are also asked for their views about the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. In the month of November, the conditions have turned slightly negative in the New York manufacturing region. The General Business Conditions Index dropped to minus 2.21 from 1.52 in October. New orders are at minus 5.53, unfilled orders are at minus 17.11, shipments are at minus 0.53, and employees are at zero this month. These lacking numbers are pointing to further declines. This is the first time since May that the Empire State index is in the minus column, which indicates a flattening in growth, not a reversal.

Federal Reserve Chairperson-Designate Janet Yellen

11-14-2013 4-41-25 PMThis morning at 10:00 a.m EST in Washington DC, Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Chairperson-Designate, testified on monetary policy before the Senate Banking Committee. Unexpectedly, text of the testimony was released 17 hours earlier than the scheduled speaking time. Today’s testimony had a positive effect on currency. The testimony is normally given in two parts. First, the prepared statement is read and a text version is made available on the Fed’s website. The second part is a Q&A session, where the questions are not known beforehand. The questions, being unscripted, can lead to some moments of heavy market volatility, as traders try to predict the effect on the bank’s monetary policy.