Important Economic Speakers

11-22-2013 5-07-48 PMThe opening price on the E-mini S&P market today was (1784.25). At 3:20 p.m. US/Eastern time, the day’s high of (1795.50) was reached. The day’s low point of (1783.50) was hit about 5 minutes after market opening . According to the Bloomberg Economic Calendar, there were two important speakers today. Esther George, the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President, gave a speech on bank supervision at Bank of France conference in Paris. Daniel Tarullo, a member of the Board of Governors of the United States Federal Reserve Board since January 28th, 2009, gave a speech on shadow banking to Economic Policy Institute in Washington. There was no indication that the speakers had any significant impact on the market.

Eric Rosengren on Basill III

11-18-2013 4-41-48 PMThe opening price on the E-mini S&P today was (1798). The day’s high price was (1798.75) at 11:15 a.m. US/Eastern time. At 3:35 p.m. US/Eastern time, the low price of the day was (1784.75). Eric Rosengren, president of the Boston Federal Reserve Bank, came out in support for the narrower definition of capital under the global Basel III framework. In July, the Fed adopted the global Basel III rules in a commitment to draft tougher capital requirements for the largest banks. Basel III will force most banks to hold about three times as much top-quality capital as is required under existing rules, to reduce their risk and protect taxpayers from costly bailouts. The Federal Reserve Board will be required to undergo annual stress tests using three economic and financial market scenarios. Only a summary of the three official Fed scenarios would be made public. The rules would apply not only to banks but, also to all institutions with more than US$50 billion in assets. The Fed will begin implementing the Basel III framework in early 2014 and is expected to be fully implemented by 2019.

Empire State Mfg Survey

11-15-2013 4-13-34 PMThe opening price on the E-mini S&P today was (1791.25). At 11:50 a.m. US/Eastern time, the market double bottomed at (1788). At 4:05 p.m. US/Eastern time the high price of the day (1796) was hit. Each month, the New York Fed conducts a monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Representatives from a variety of industries participate. About 175 manufacturing executives respond to the questionnaire, which is sent out on the first of each month. The questionnaire covers an assortment of indicators from the previous month. Respondents are also asked for their views about the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. In the month of November, the conditions have turned slightly negative in the New York manufacturing region. The General Business Conditions Index dropped to minus 2.21 from 1.52 in October. New orders are at minus 5.53, unfilled orders are at minus 17.11, shipments are at minus 0.53, and employees are at zero this month. These lacking numbers are pointing to further declines. This is the first time since May that the Empire State index is in the minus column, which indicates a flattening in growth, not a reversal.

Federal Reserve Chairperson-Designate Janet Yellen

11-14-2013 4-41-25 PMThis morning at 10:00 a.m EST in Washington DC, Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Chairperson-Designate, testified on monetary policy before the Senate Banking Committee. Unexpectedly, text of the testimony was released 17 hours earlier than the scheduled speaking time. Today’s testimony had a positive effect on currency. The testimony is normally given in two parts. First, the prepared statement is read and a text version is made available on the Fed’s website. The second part is a Q&A session, where the questions are not known beforehand. The questions, being unscripted, can lead to some moments of heavy market volatility, as traders try to predict the effect on the bank’s monetary policy.

Chain Store Sales

11-7-2013 5-40-53 PMToday, the opening price on the E-mini S&P was (1770.75). The day’s high price (1771.25) was hit at 9:50 a.m. US/Eastern time. The day’s low was (1742.25) at 3:55 p.m. US/Eastern time. Chain-store sales are mostly positive, but not by much. Compared to September, slightly more chains are reporting higher year-on-year sales rates in October, which appears to have gotten a lift from cold weather that boosted demand for seasonal goods. But the government shutdown was a negative, holding down spending in the first half of the month. The weekly chain-store reports have been mixed with slight monthly strength to weakness. Vehicle sales posted by manufacturers on last week’s calendar is another indication that October retail sales are flat. The October retail sales report was delayed slightly by last month’s government shutdown and will be posted on November 20.