New York Fed President William Dudley

11-20-2013 4-39-01 PMThis morning, the E-mini S&P opened at (1788). The day’s high price of (1794.25) was hit at 10:25 a.m. US/Eastern Time. The day’s low (1774.50) was hit at 3:10 p.m. US/Eastern. William Dudley the New York Fed President talked about the labor market at the press conference on regional and national economy in New York this morning. He mentioned that the Fed wants to bring the unemployment rate down as part of its dual mandate. The NY Fed president expects that economic growth will improve to a range of 2.5 percent to 3 percent in 2014. He expected inflation to remain below the Fed’s goal of 2 percent in 2014.

Eric Rosengren on Basill III

11-18-2013 4-41-48 PMThe opening price on the E-mini S&P today was (1798). The day’s high price was (1798.75) at 11:15 a.m. US/Eastern time. At 3:35 p.m. US/Eastern time, the low price of the day was (1784.75). Eric Rosengren, president of the Boston Federal Reserve Bank, came out in support for the narrower definition of capital under the global Basel III framework. In July, the Fed adopted the global Basel III rules in a commitment to draft tougher capital requirements for the largest banks. Basel III will force most banks to hold about three times as much top-quality capital as is required under existing rules, to reduce their risk and protect taxpayers from costly bailouts. The Federal Reserve Board will be required to undergo annual stress tests using three economic and financial market scenarios. Only a summary of the three official Fed scenarios would be made public. The rules would apply not only to banks but, also to all institutions with more than US$50 billion in assets. The Fed will begin implementing the Basel III framework in early 2014 and is expected to be fully implemented by 2019.

Empire State Mfg Survey

11-15-2013 4-13-34 PMThe opening price on the E-mini S&P today was (1791.25). At 11:50 a.m. US/Eastern time, the market double bottomed at (1788). At 4:05 p.m. US/Eastern time the high price of the day (1796) was hit. Each month, the New York Fed conducts a monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Representatives from a variety of industries participate. About 175 manufacturing executives respond to the questionnaire, which is sent out on the first of each month. The questionnaire covers an assortment of indicators from the previous month. Respondents are also asked for their views about the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. In the month of November, the conditions have turned slightly negative in the New York manufacturing region. The General Business Conditions Index dropped to minus 2.21 from 1.52 in October. New orders are at minus 5.53, unfilled orders are at minus 17.11, shipments are at minus 0.53, and employees are at zero this month. These lacking numbers are pointing to further declines. This is the first time since May that the Empire State index is in the minus column, which indicates a flattening in growth, not a reversal.

Federal Reserve Chairperson-Designate Janet Yellen

11-14-2013 4-41-25 PMThis morning at 10:00 a.m EST in Washington DC, Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Chairperson-Designate, testified on monetary policy before the Senate Banking Committee. Unexpectedly, text of the testimony was released 17 hours earlier than the scheduled speaking time. Today’s testimony had a positive effect on currency. The testimony is normally given in two parts. First, the prepared statement is read and a text version is made available on the Fed’s website. The second part is a Q&A session, where the questions are not known beforehand. The questions, being unscripted, can lead to some moments of heavy market volatility, as traders try to predict the effect on the bank’s monetary policy.

Treasury Budget Report

11-13-2013 4-40-34 PMThe E-mini S&P opened today at (1756.50). The day’s low price was hit within the first five minutes of opening at (1755.25). At 4:40 p.m. US/Eastern time the day’s high was reached at (1781.50). Each month, the U.S. Treasury releases a monthly report of the surplus or deficit of the federal government. Investors pay attention to changes in the budget balance of the annual fiscal year, as an indicator of budgetary trends. The deficit reduction continues into the first month of the government’s new fiscal year, with a $91.6 billion vs a deficit of $120.0 billion in October last year. That is a a 24 percent improvement. About $8 billion of the improvement is tied to calendar timing, meaning the actual year-on-year improvement is 17 percent. A gain in corporate income taxes are led by an 8 percent increase in receipts. The temporary government shutdown is perhaps to blame for outlays being down five percent. The year-on-year spending on defence is down 8 percent, with net interest expense down 18 percent.