New York Fed President William Dudley

11-20-2013 4-39-01 PMThis morning, the E-mini S&P opened at (1788). The day’s high price of (1794.25) was hit at 10:25 a.m. US/Eastern Time. The day’s low (1774.50) was hit at 3:10 p.m. US/Eastern. William Dudley the New York Fed President talked about the labor market at the press conference on regional and national economy in New York this morning. He mentioned that the Fed wants to bring the unemployment rate down as part of its dual mandate. The NY Fed president expects that economic growth will improve to a range of 2.5 percent to 3 percent in 2014. He expected inflation to remain below the Fed’s goal of 2 percent in 2014.

Empire State Mfg Survey

11-15-2013 4-13-34 PMThe opening price on the E-mini S&P today was (1791.25). At 11:50 a.m. US/Eastern time, the market double bottomed at (1788). At 4:05 p.m. US/Eastern time the high price of the day (1796) was hit. Each month, the New York Fed conducts a monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Representatives from a variety of industries participate. About 175 manufacturing executives respond to the questionnaire, which is sent out on the first of each month. The questionnaire covers an assortment of indicators from the previous month. Respondents are also asked for their views about the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. In the month of November, the conditions have turned slightly negative in the New York manufacturing region. The General Business Conditions Index dropped to minus 2.21 from 1.52 in October. New orders are at minus 5.53, unfilled orders are at minus 17.11, shipments are at minus 0.53, and employees are at zero this month. These lacking numbers are pointing to further declines. This is the first time since May that the Empire State index is in the minus column, which indicates a flattening in growth, not a reversal.

Treasury Budget Report

11-13-2013 4-40-34 PMThe E-mini S&P opened today at (1756.50). The day’s low price was hit within the first five minutes of opening at (1755.25). At 4:40 p.m. US/Eastern time the day’s high was reached at (1781.50). Each month, the U.S. Treasury releases a monthly report of the surplus or deficit of the federal government. Investors pay attention to changes in the budget balance of the annual fiscal year, as an indicator of budgetary trends. The deficit reduction continues into the first month of the government’s new fiscal year, with a $91.6 billion vs a deficit of $120.0 billion in October last year. That is a a 24 percent improvement. About $8 billion of the improvement is tied to calendar timing, meaning the actual year-on-year improvement is 17 percent. A gain in corporate income taxes are led by an 8 percent increase in receipts. The temporary government shutdown is perhaps to blame for outlays being down five percent. The year-on-year spending on defence is down 8 percent, with net interest expense down 18 percent.

International Council of Shopping Centers

11-12-2013 4-56-47 PMToday the E-mini S&P opened at (1766.50). At 10 a.m. US/Eastern time The da’ys high was reached at (1770). The day’s low was reached about five minutes after opening at 9:35 a.m. US/Eastern time of (1764). The International Council of Shopping Centers publishes a weekly report of comparable store sales at major retail chains. This report accounts for about 10 percent of total retail sales. The report this week states there was a 1.2 percent jump in week-to-week same-store sales for a 2.3 percent year-on-year pace which is up 4 tenths in the week. This was most likely the result of colder weather and lower gas prices in the November 9 week.

Chain Store Sales

11-7-2013 5-40-53 PMToday, the opening price on the E-mini S&P was (1770.75). The day’s high price (1771.25) was hit at 9:50 a.m. US/Eastern time. The day’s low was (1742.25) at 3:55 p.m. US/Eastern time. Chain-store sales are mostly positive, but not by much. Compared to September, slightly more chains are reporting higher year-on-year sales rates in October, which appears to have gotten a lift from cold weather that boosted demand for seasonal goods. But the government shutdown was a negative, holding down spending in the first half of the month. The weekly chain-store reports have been mixed with slight monthly strength to weakness. Vehicle sales posted by manufacturers on last week’s calendar is another indication that October retail sales are flat. The October retail sales report was delayed slightly by last month’s government shutdown and will be posted on November 20.