Empire State Mfg Survey

11-15-2013 4-13-34 PMThe opening price on the E-mini S&P today was (1791.25). At 11:50 a.m. US/Eastern time, the market double bottomed at (1788). At 4:05 p.m. US/Eastern time the high price of the day (1796) was hit. Each month, the New York Fed conducts a monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Representatives from a variety of industries participate. About 175 manufacturing executives respond to the questionnaire, which is sent out on the first of each month. The questionnaire covers an assortment of indicators from the previous month. Respondents are also asked for their views about the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. In the month of November, the conditions have turned slightly negative in the New York manufacturing region. The General Business Conditions Index dropped to minus 2.21 from 1.52 in October. New orders are at minus 5.53, unfilled orders are at minus 17.11, shipments are at minus 0.53, and employees are at zero this month. These lacking numbers are pointing to further declines. This is the first time since May that the Empire State index is in the minus column, which indicates a flattening in growth, not a reversal.

Federal Reserve Chairperson-Designate Janet Yellen

11-14-2013 4-41-25 PMThis morning at 10:00 a.m EST in Washington DC, Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Chairperson-Designate, testified on monetary policy before the Senate Banking Committee. Unexpectedly, text of the testimony was released 17 hours earlier than the scheduled speaking time. Today’s testimony had a positive effect on currency. The testimony is normally given in two parts. First, the prepared statement is read and a text version is made available on the Fed’s website. The second part is a Q&A session, where the questions are not known beforehand. The questions, being unscripted, can lead to some moments of heavy market volatility, as traders try to predict the effect on the bank’s monetary policy.

Treasury Budget Report

11-13-2013 4-40-34 PMThe E-mini S&P opened today at (1756.50). The day’s low price was hit within the first five minutes of opening at (1755.25). At 4:40 p.m. US/Eastern time the day’s high was reached at (1781.50). Each month, the U.S. Treasury releases a monthly report of the surplus or deficit of the federal government. Investors pay attention to changes in the budget balance of the annual fiscal year, as an indicator of budgetary trends. The deficit reduction continues into the first month of the government’s new fiscal year, with a $91.6 billion vs a deficit of $120.0 billion in October last year. That is a a 24 percent improvement. About $8 billion of the improvement is tied to calendar timing, meaning the actual year-on-year improvement is 17 percent. A gain in corporate income taxes are led by an 8 percent increase in receipts. The temporary government shutdown is perhaps to blame for outlays being down five percent. The year-on-year spending on defence is down 8 percent, with net interest expense down 18 percent.

International Council of Shopping Centers

11-12-2013 4-56-47 PMToday the E-mini S&P opened at (1766.50). At 10 a.m. US/Eastern time The da’ys high was reached at (1770). The day’s low was reached about five minutes after opening at 9:35 a.m. US/Eastern time of (1764). The International Council of Shopping Centers publishes a weekly report of comparable store sales at major retail chains. This report accounts for about 10 percent of total retail sales. The report this week states there was a 1.2 percent jump in week-to-week same-store sales for a 2.3 percent year-on-year pace which is up 4 tenths in the week. This was most likely the result of colder weather and lower gas prices in the November 9 week.

Petroleum Status

Oct-23-2013-2The opening price on the E-mini S&P was (1742.25) today. There was a high of (1744) that was reached within the first ten minutes of the market opening. The lowest price was (1734.50) at 10:55 p.m. Eastern time today. For the 5th week in a row there has been a increase of domestic production together with falling demand in petroleum, resulting in a 5.2 million barrel increase in oil inventories to 379.8 million barrels. For the second time in weekly records domestic production is at 7.9 million barrels per day while imports are at 7.7 million. These recent increases are due to the surge in domestic production and also seasonal slowing at refineries which are operating at 85.9 percent of capacity. Inventories of gasoline fell 1.8 million barrels in the week while distillate inventories rose 1.5 million.